The International Cocoa Organization has revised its forecast for the 2008/2009 cocoa year and revised estimates for 2007/2008 of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans in its second quarter report.

The current revised forecast for the 2008/2009 puts world production at 3,466 thousand tonnes from last year’s 3,735 thousand tonnes representing a drop of 7.2 percent. However, the end-of-season stocks is forecast at 1,471 thousand tonnes from last year’s 1,555 thousand tonnes representing a supply deficit of 84%.

In a separate development according to analyst and exporters in Ivory Coast, mid crop cocoa harvest may be as small as 240,000 tonnes. The season has been disrupted by bad weather, disease and changes in the government’s administration of the sector as it responds to accusations of corruption.

Farmers have relayed that the heavy rains and insufficient sunshine would also damage the quality of harvested beans which has already led exporters to reject up to 40% of beans. Abidjan based exporter highlighted that the destruction of flowers and young pods would likely put future productions at 200,000 tonnes less than previous forecast of 275,000 tonnes. The beans exports for the 2008/2009 season which ends in September were down 20 percent on the previous season by June 23, though semi-finished product shipments were higher according to according to custom data.

The World Bank is pressing Ivory Coast to cut cocoa taxes by around half by 2010 to enable it reach achievement point of the HIPC and also to discourage exporters from buying beans and stockpiling them for sale the following season. Prices of beans which account for around 20 percent of Ivorian GDP have fallen by 7 percent this year.

Benchmark cocoa futures LCCU9 for delivery in September traded around £ 1610 per tonne in London on Friday.