Ghana Cocoa Board predicts a higher than expected cocoa production output for the 2008/2009 crop season amid growing concerns of adverse weather conditions – heavy rains.

It remains optimistic of securing 50,000 metric tonnes compared to 16,000 metric tonnes purchased during last year’s light crop season. CocoBod bought 600,000 metric tonnes in the main crop season between Oct, 2008 and May, 2009 which implies the annual output expected for the 2008/2009 crop season will exceed last year’s annual season’s total production output.

However, heavy rains being experienced in the light crop season could increase the incidence of post-harvest losses and black-pod disease which reduces output as warned by the Cocoa Research Institute. Fortis, the Investment Bank reported potentially very significant disruptions to the Cocoa sector from El Nino in the Asia – Pacific region. There are also significant supply deficit from the world’s largest producer Ivory Coast as a result of heavy rains.

The International Cocoa Organization revised its world production forecast for the 2008/2009 crop season estimate to 3,466 thousand tonnes from last year’s 3,735 thousand tonnes representing 7.2 percent decline.  However, the end-of-season stock is forecast at 1,471 thousand tonnes from last year’s 1,555 thousand tonnes representing a supply deficit of 84 percent.